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If former President Donald Trump wins a second term in the November election, expect him to try to stay in power beyond his allotted four years, says Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. Right now, a second Trump term is a real possibility. AdvertisementInstead, Trump is more likely to declare a state of emergency, Stiglitz said, in an attempt to delay or cancel elections. The executive branch has no power to move the date of elections, according to the National Constitution Center. AdvertisementChanging an election date via Congress would need the approval of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, and the two chambers would have to come up with a new election date, per the National Constitution Center.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, Putin, Orbán, Bolsonaro, Stiglitz, Trump, Joe Biden, Brad Raffensperger, Mike Pence, I'm, Pence, Ronald Reagan Organizations: Service, Business, Trump, RealClearPolitics, Georgia, Capitol, Republican Senate, Congress, National Constitution Center, Senate, Representatives, Constitution Center, Congressional Research Service, CRS, :, Good Society Locations: Ohio
It's a difficult time for first-time homebuyers amid poor housing affordability levels. In a recent analysis, SmartAsset ranked 192 US cities for new homebuyer favorability. The ranking considers median home prices, competition levels, and more. This has crushed affordability, putting housing payments at roughly their most expensive levels relative to incomes in four decades. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: SmartAsset, Organizations: Service, Business
A Piper Sandler recession indicator says an economic downturn could be here. This indicator typically precedes official NBER recession announcements by about four months. But Chief Investment Strategist Michael Kantrowitz says stocks should still rise in the near-term. Popular recession indicators like the Treasury yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index have been signaling for over a year now that a downturn is ahead. Last week, a lesser-known gauge — with just as impressive a track record — joined their ranks in warning of trouble ahead for the US economy.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Michael Kantrowitz, , Piper Organizations: Conference, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business
Over that time, the non-farm payrolls survey showed that the US economy gained 640,000 jobs. In addition to believing jobs data is distorted, Rosenberg has said in recent months that stock prices and valuations are disconnected from the macroeconomic picture. The chart below shows the AI boom — represented by the yellow line — with AI stocks climbing several hundred percent since 2022. Rosenberg ResearchDownturn or no downturnRosenberg has been notoriously bearish over the last couple of years, repeatedly warning of a recession. Pantheon MacroeconomicsAs Rosenberg points out, the longer the Fed keeps rates elevated, the higher the risk of a recession becomes.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's Organizations: Labor Statistics, Business, Rosenberg Research, BLS, Dynamics, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Treasury
The US economic expansion should continue in the months ahead, assuming there are no major external shocks, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. Consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of the US economy, is still positive, and job gains have been robust. AdvertisementDespite his generally upbeat outlook, however, Stiglitz is concerned about a number of risks. 4 economic risks to watchThe first is that economic slowdowns happening elsewhere could seep into the US. Congress could shut down again, we might not get some of the necessary bills that we need to continue government," Stiglitz said.
Persons: Joseph Stiglitz, we've, Stiglitz, Brent, Mike Johnson, Trump, Putin Organizations: Service, Columbia University, Conference, Business, Republican Locations: Europe, China, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, Taiwan, Eastern Europe
This was achieved by allowing first-time buyers to purchase a home with a smaller down payment — as low as 3.5%. The program is still around, and it's often a great way for real-estate investors to get started. Advertisement3 ways to make the most of government loan programsWelgan also shared two strategies that real-estate investors can use to maximize the leverage offered through government loans. Buyers can now purchase up to a four-unit property with a down payment of as little as 5%. "That's been a game changer for real-estate investors," Welgan said.
Persons: , Jeff Welgan, Fannie Mae, Buyers, Welgan, Fannie Mae's, That's, ADUs, Dave Meyer, Fannie, I've Organizations: Service, Act, Business, Federal National Mortgage Association, Mortgage, Urban Locations: Los Angeles County , California, Michigan, California
If Trump is elected again, Stiglitz said, he could well pull support for Ukraine, sending grain prices soaring. For Stiglitz, the 2001 winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, America's appetite for Trump can be traced back a little more than four decades ago to the election of Ronald Reagan. "We've had 40 years of a neoliberal experiment: Strip away the regulations and lower the taxes — taxes are much lower than they used to be. But Komlos and Stiglitz don't place blame solely on Reagan for the growing economic inequality. Every European country that's had a wealth tax has walked away from it, by and large."
Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, Trump, Stiglitz, Joe Biden, Ronald Reagan, , that's, Reagan, We've, Dina Litovsky, Friedrich Hayek, Milton Friedman, That's, Stiglitz doesn't, John Komlos, Komlos, Joe, Bill Clinton, Clinton, Barack Obama, insurrectionists, Desmond Lachman, Carter, Douglas Holtz, Eakin, George W, John McCain's, Holtz, America Stiglitz, Hayek, Friedman, Claudia Sahm, you've, what's Organizations: Columbia Business School, Business, Capitol, Biden, Trump, :, Good Society, America's, Federal Reserve, Budget, Bank, University of Munich, Duke University, University of North, Democratic, North American Free Trade, World Trade Organization, American Enterprise Institute, Bush's, Economic Advisers Locations: Manhattan, Ukraine, Russia, China, Beijing, Taiwan, University of North Carolina, Spain, America
On Monday, Prince William and Kate Middleton celebrated their 13th wedding anniversary. Prince William and Kate Middleton celebrated their 13th wedding anniversary on Monday. Related storiesTo celebrate the milestone, Kate and William posted a never-before-seen photo from their wedding on their Instagram account. AdvertisementPrince William and Kate Middleton in 2023. William did not appear in the video with Kate, but he has made public appearances following her announcement.
Persons: Prince William, Kate Middleton, Kensington, , Princess, Wales, Kate, William, Millie Pilkington, Alexander McQueen, Prince, Princess of, Chris Jackson Organizations: Service, Westminster Abbey, University of St, Daily Mail, TMZ Locations: Westminster, University of St Andrews, Kensington
Read previewLooking at the headline numbers, the US labor market is booming. OVOM Research/Bullandbearprofits.comWolfenbarger's views in contextOther market observers have started to warn of a weakening labor market in recent months. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, shared several indicators in a client note earlier this month warning of a job market slowdown ahead. Pantheon MacroeconomicsBut whether the labor market actually weakens materially remains to be seen. AdvertisementIf Wolfenbarger is right and the labor market falls apart in short order, it could catch an exceptionally bullish market off guard.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, There's Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Labor Statistics, Fed, Conference, Treasury, OVOM, Pantheon, National Federation of Independent
Q1 2024 earnings season has arrived, and Morgan Stanley has some ideas on which stocks have upside. In a recent client note, the bank listed 11 stocks its analysts believe will jump on earnings data. Below, we've listed the stocks along with how much upside they have to price targets. AdvertisementEarnings reports can often be upside catalysts for stocks if a firm outperforms in the prior quarter or issues guidance for stronger revenue. With 2024's first-quarter earnings season entering full swing, Morgan Stanley has some ideas about which other stocks are well-positioned to surge this time.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , Tesla Organizations: Service, Business
It's called a managed futures strategy. That's according to iM Global Partner, which has the largest exchange-traded fund — iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF) — that copies the strategy. Meanwhile, a managed futures strategy, with its short-term approach across stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies, is generally uncorrelated to longer-term bond and stock market performance. From January to October 14, 2022, for example, the Credit Suisse Managed Futures Strategy (CSAIX) was up around 26%. iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF)January-October 14, 2022 returns: 33.9%2024 year-to-date returns: 13.1%Assets under management: $988 millionFirst Trust Managed Futures Strategy Fund (FMF)January-October 14, 2022 returns: 15.7%2024 year-to-date returns: 7.3%Assets under management: $144 millionKFA Mount Lucas Managed Futures Index Strategy ETF (KMLM)January-October 14, 2022 returns: 50%2024 year-to-date returns: 8.8%Assets under management: $284 millionSimplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF (CTA)
Persons: It's, , Andrew Beer, Seth Klarman's, Beer, we've Organizations: Global, Business, Treasury Bond ETF, Credit Suisse, Morningstar, Lucas Locations: DBMF, lockstep, VettaFi
Read previewMichael Hartnett, Bank of America's top global strategist, thinks a no-landing scenario is the most-likely outcome for the US economy in the months ahead. That means the labor market would remain strong, but inflation would also stay above the Federal Reserve's long-term goal of 2%. While that's fine for now, Hartnett warns it's a path that eventually leads to trouble for the economy and stocks. "We say rising no landing risks = rising hard landing risks," Hartnett said in an April 11 note. The fund's price dipped below its 200-day moving average in 2020 and 2022, when the economy slowed and stocks underperformed.
Persons: , Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, it's, Michael Landsberg Organizations: Service, Bank of America's, Business, Consumer, Bank of America, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management, Fed Locations: REITs, Ukraine
Since late October last year, the S&P 500 has risen as much as 27% on strong economic data and excitement about AI. Losses were steepest last week when Iran fired missiles at Israel, exacerbating regional and global tensions. But as more labor market and inflation data has come out, investors now believe a cut is off the table until at least July. The S&P 500 has now dipped below its 20-day moving average, like it did last summer when yields rose above 4.35%. "The VIX, SKEW and Put/Call Ratio all indicate that sophisticated investors are on edge and volatility could explode to 52-week highs in the weeks ahead," Essaye said.
Persons: , that's, Israel, James Demmert, Demmert, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Tom Essaye, Essaye, selloff, Solita, It's, Marcelli, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Brent, Research, Federal Reserve, LPL, MAs, UBS Americas, UBS Global Investment Locations: Iran, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen
About 45% of changes to S&P 500 analysts' earnings estimates are upgrades, as shown in the chart below, down from 50% in early 2023. AdvertisementSociete GeneraleHistorically, analyst optimism has been a good indicator for the economy's direction. Below is the S&P 500's year-over-year percentage change along with the analyst optimism measure. He says the S&P 500 is in a bubble fueled by AI optimism and could fall as much as around 60%. He sees potential downside of 39% for the S&P 500.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, Edwards, Powell's, Ed Yardeni, Let's, There's, Jeremy Grantham, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Business, Street, Nasdaq, Generale, Conference, Institute for Supply, subsiding, Fed, repo, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bears, Rosenberg Research, policymaking
That's why the duo, who are both certified divorce financial advisors, launched Divorce Friday, a financial education blog for those going through a split. "I know that women need more help when they're going through a divorce. Through the years, Pappas and Chen have seen some common mistakes that divorcees make when divvying up assets. "If they're going to be single now, the tax rate is effectively higher, so they're going to have less income with a higher tax rate, and that is a problem." 2024 federal income tax brackets
Persons: Diane Pappas, Chris Chen, Pappas, there's, it's, Chen Organizations: Census, Centers for Disease Control, Business Locations: State, New York
Weight-loss drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro are all the rage, and investors are noticing. Since launching in November, the Tema Obesity and Cardiometabolic ETF (HRTS) is up 24%, crushing the S&P 500's 14.8% returns over the same period. Pot and his colleagues at Tema are bullish on the weight-loss drug stocks due to the wave of demand they see coming. Novo Nordisk estimates that only 2% of obesity cases are being treated by weight-loss drugs, Pot said. 4 weight-loss drug stocks to watchPot listed two larger stocks and two smaller ones in the space.
Persons: Maurits Pot, Janus Henderson, Pot, Goldman Sachs, Geoff Meacham, Charles Barkley, Elon Musk, Whoopi Goldberg, Eli Lilly, Lilly Organizations: VanEck Pharmaceutical, Business, World Health Organization, Novo Nordisk, Bank of America, Bank, Nordisk, FDA, Amazon, Therapeutics, Zealand Pharma Locations: Tema, GLP, Danish, it's
Housing affordability has significantly declined as home prices and mortgage rates have surged. The average salary required for a median-priced home in the US has jumped 45.5% since 2020. A $100,000 annual income is now needed in almost half of US states to afford a median-priced home. This means that across the board, the salary needed to afford a home has risen. According to a Bankrate analysis, the average salary required to be able to afford a median-priced home in the US has jumped by 45.5% since 2020, from $76,191 to $110,871.
Organizations: US, Business
But with the market at an all-time high, now is probably a good time to hedge against potential downside, experts say. That's especially the case because there's an elevated degree of risk facing stocks, and the cost of some insurance measures is historically cheap. Related storiesThe S&P 500 also looks overextended on a technical basis, according to many measures. AdvertisementRosenberg Research"The definition of a stretched market is one when the S&P 500 gaps 14% or more above the 200-day trendline. Beyond extreme, in fact — back to 1928, the S&P 500 has only drifted this far above the moving average 7% of the time," Rosenberg said.
Persons: Jim Smigiel, they've, Louis Fed, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Steve Sosnick, we're, Smigiel, Sosnick Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Bank of America's, Survey, Bank of America, SEI, Fed, Louis Fed Inflation, MRB Partners, Rebels, Rosenberg Research, Interactive Brokers Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, Suez
According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's
Adam Craig built up his real-estate portfolio over the last decade-plus using the famous BRRRR strategy — an acronym for buy, rehab, rent, refinance, and repeat. But he has stopped using the strategy for residential properties and said it isn't something he'd recommend for new investors. ATTOMAnother risk to using the BRRRR strategy is that home prices are not rising as fast as they were over the last few years. 3 approaches to use insteadInstead of the BRRRR, Craig recommended that new investors start off with one of a few easier options. This way, risk is reduced in terms of the time it will take and money it will cost.
Persons: Adam Craig, Craig, Craig doesn't, that's, doesn't, Louis Fed Organizations: Business Locations: St
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. But Jim Smiegel, the CIO at $1.4 trillion SEI, thinks the stocks' run could be over soon. Tesla shares are down 32% since December, while shares of Apple are down 14% over the last few months. Historically, higher interest rates hurt growth stocks with higher valuations. 2 areas to look insteadSmiegel listed two areas of the market that look more attractive to him at the moment: energy and financials.
Persons: , Meta —, Jim Smiegel, Smiegel, There's Organizations: Service, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, SEI, Business, Federal, CPI, Vanguard
Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics' founder, predicts a significant US labor market slowdown. Shepherdson anticipates five 25-basis-point rate cuts from the Fed in 2024 instead of three. AdvertisementOne of the big surprises of the Federal Reserve's record hiking cycle over the last couple of years has been the strength of the labor market. Month after month, the US economy has steadily added jobs, and the unemployment rate has remained below 4%. But all of that looks likely to change in the months ahead, according to Ian Shepherdson, the founder and chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Persons: Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, Organizations: Macroeconomics, Fed, Service, Federal, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Business
Hussman FundsThese levels indicate the S&P 500 is likely to return around -5% annualized over the next 12 years, according to Hussman's math. AdvertisementBy the time the current market cycle bottoms out, the S&P 500 could well have fallen by 50%-70%, Hussman said. He predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 33% over the past year.
Persons: , John Hussman's, Hussman, he's, we've, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, There's, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Gary Shilling Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Exchange, Federal Locations: Miami
Like most investors that use the method, he was initially fixing up residential properties and renting them out to tenants. Instead of buying homes to fix up, he started purchasing commercial properties like office buildings, warehouses, and retail spaces. Related storiesThe better a commercial property is, the more rent one can charge for it, which directly impacts its value. In seven of the commercial properties that Craig owns, he said he has a 100% occupancy rate. "I'm just grinding way harder than any commercial real estate broker would ever grind for me because they have 50 or 100 clients."
Persons: , Adam Craig, it's, Craig, they're, he's Organizations: Service, Business Insider, Business Locations: San Francisco , New York City
Just because the current valuation backdrop isn't as extreme as 1999-2000, we are still in a market bubble, and valuations are even more stretched today than they were at the market peaks in 2007, 1990, and 1980." Rosenberg ResearchSecond, the S&P 500 is outperforming the HYG/TLT Ratio. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchAnd third, even tech stocks, which have been overwhelmingly supporting the S&P 500, appear to be running out of gas, Rosenberg said. The same goes for Paul Dietrich, the chief strategist at B. Riley Wealth, who says the S&P 500 could fall 49% when the current bubble pops. The bull market has thrown egg onto their faces again and again: since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 is up a whopping 42%.
Persons: , David Rosenberg isn't, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, he's, manias, HYG, Michael Hartnett, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Dietrich, Grantham, Carol Schleif Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity Model, Dow Jones, Dow Transports Index, Bank of America's, Bank, America, BMO Family Office
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